网络传媒柔性广告库存智能分配WordPress插件应用教程
引言：广告库存管理的挑战与机遇
在当今数字化媒体时代，网络传媒公司面临着广告库存管理的双重挑战：一方面需要最大化广告收益，另一方面要确保广告投放效果和用户体验。传统的固定广告位分配方式已无法满足动态多变的市场需求，柔性广告库存智能分配技术应运而生。
本教程将详细介绍如何在WordPress平台上应用柔性广告库存智能分配插件，帮助您实现广告资源的优化配置，提升广告填充率和收益率。我们将从插件安装、配置到高级功能实现，一步步带您掌握这一强大工具。
插件安装与环境准备
1. 系统要求检查
在安装插件前，请确保您的WordPress环境满足以下要求：
- WordPress 5.0或更高版本
- PHP 7.2或更高版本
- MySQL 5.6或更高版本
- 至少256MB内存限制
2. 插件安装步骤
您可以通过两种方式安装插件：
方式一：WordPress后台直接安装
- 登录WordPress后台
- 进入"插件" → "安装插件"
- 搜索"Flexible Ad Inventory Manager"
- 点击"立即安装"并激活
方式二：手动上传安装
- 下载插件ZIP文件
- 进入WordPress后台"插件" → "安装插件"
- 点击"上传插件"
- 选择下载的ZIP文件并安装
3. 基础配置
激活插件后，需要进行基础配置：
// 示例：初始化插件配置
add_action('init', 'faim_initialize_plugin');
function faim_initialize_plugin() {
// 检查必要组件
if (!class_exists('FAIM_Core')) {
require_once(plugin_dir_path(__FILE__) . 'core/class-faim-core.php');
}
// 初始化核心模块
$faim_core = new FAIM_Core();
// 设置默认参数
$default_settings = array(
'inventory_refresh_rate' => 300, // 库存刷新频率（秒）
'prediction_model' => 'linear', // 默认预测模型
'auto_optimization' => true, // 开启自动优化
'fallback_ad' => 'default_ad', // 默认后备广告
'performance_tracking' => true // 开启性能跟踪
);
// 保存默认设置
update_option('faim_settings', $default_settings);
// 创建必要的数据库表
faim_create_database_tables();
}广告库存智能分配系统配置
1. 广告位定义与分类
进入插件设置页面，首先需要定义您的广告位：
// 示例：创建广告位分类
class AdSlot {
public $id;
public $name;
public $dimensions;
public $priority;
public $constraints;
public function __construct($id, $name, $width, $height, $priority = 1) {
$this->id = $id;
$this->name = $name;
$this->dimensions = array('width' => $width, 'height' => $height);
$this->priority = $priority;
$this->constraints = array();
}
// 添加投放约束条件
public function add_constraint($type, $value) {
$this->constraints[$type] = $value;
return $this;
}
// 检查广告是否符合此广告位
public function check_compatibility($ad) {
// 检查尺寸匹配
if ($ad['width'] != $this->dimensions['width'] ||
$ad['height'] != $this->dimensions['height']) {
return false;
}
// 检查其他约束条件
foreach ($this->constraints as $type => $constraint_value) {
if (isset($ad[$type]) && $ad[$type] != $constraint_value) {
return false;
}
}
return true;
}
}
// 使用示例
$header_ad_slot = new AdSlot('header_728x90', '头部横幅广告', 728, 90, 1);
$header_ad_slot->add_constraint('format', 'image')
->add_constraint('max_file_size', 200); // 文件大小限制200KB2. 智能分配算法配置
插件提供多种智能分配算法，您可以根据需求选择：
// 示例：智能分配算法实现
class IntelligentAllocator {
private $inventory;
private $algorithm;
public function __construct($algorithm = 'weighted_round_robin') {
$this->algorithm = $algorithm;
$this->inventory = $this->load_inventory();
}
// 加载广告库存
private function load_inventory() {
global $wpdb;
$table_name = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_inventory';
$inventory = $wpdb->get_results(
"SELECT * FROM $table_name WHERE status = 'active'",
ARRAY_A
);
return $inventory;
}
// 分配广告主算法
public function allocate_ad($slot, $user_context = array()) {
switch ($this->algorithm) {
case 'weighted_round_robin':
return $this->weighted_round_robin($slot, $user_context);
case 'predictive_allocation':
return $this->predictive_allocation($slot, $user_context);
case 'real_time_bidding':
return $this->real_time_bidding($slot, $user_context);
default:
return $this->default_allocation($slot);
}
}
// 加权轮询算法
private function weighted_round_robin($slot, $user_context) {
$compatible_ads = $this->get_compatible_ads($slot);
if (empty($compatible_ads)) {
return $this->get_fallback_ad($slot);
}
// 根据权重排序
usort($compatible_ads, function($a, $b) {
return $b['weight'] - $a['weight'];
});
// 选择权重最高的广告
$selected_ad = $compatible_ads[0];
// 更新广告展示次数
$this->update_ad_impression($selected_ad['id']);
return $selected_ad;
}
// 获取兼容的广告
private function get_compatible_ads($slot) {
$compatible_ads = array();
foreach ($this->inventory as $ad) {
if ($slot->check_compatibility($ad)) {
$compatible_ads[] = $ad;
}
}
return $compatible_ads;
}
}高级功能实现
1. 实时竞价(RTB)集成
// 示例：实时竞价集成
class RTB_Integration {
private $endpoint;
private $timeout;
public function __construct($endpoint, $timeout = 2) {
$this->endpoint = $endpoint;
$this->timeout = $timeout;
}
// 发起竞价请求
public function request_bid($ad_slot, $user_data) {
$bid_request = array(
'id' => uniqid('bid_', true),
'imp' => array(
array(
'id' => $ad_slot->id,
'banner' => array(
'w' => $ad_slot->dimensions['width'],
'h' => $ad_slot->dimensions['height']
)
)
),
'user' => $user_data,
'device' => $this->get_device_info(),
'at' => 1, // 第一价格竞价
'tmax' => $this->timeout * 1000 // 超时时间(毫秒)
);
// 发送请求到竞价平台
$response = $this->send_request($bid_request);
if ($response && $response['status'] == 'success') {
return $response['bid'];
}
return false;
}
// 发送HTTP请求
private function send_request($data) {
$args = array(
'body' => json_encode($data),
'timeout' => $this->timeout,
'headers' => array(
'Content-Type' => 'application/json'
)
);
$response = wp_remote_post($this->endpoint, $args);
if (is_wp_error($response)) {
error_log('RTB请求失败: ' . $response->get_error_message());
return false;
}
return json_decode(wp_remote_retrieve_body($response), true);
}
}2. 性能监控与报告
// 示例：性能监控系统
class PerformanceMonitor {
private $stats;
public function __construct() {
$this->stats = array(
'impressions' => 0,
'clicks' => 0,
'revenue' => 0,
'fill_rate' => 0,
'ctr' => 0
);
}
// 记录广告展示
public function record_impression($ad_id, $slot_id, $revenue = 0) {
global $wpdb;
$table_name = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_performance';
$wpdb->insert(
$table_name,
array(
'ad_id' => $ad_id,
'slot_id' => $slot_id,
'event_type' => 'impression',
'revenue' => $revenue,
'timestamp' => current_time('mysql')
)
);
// 更新统计
$this->stats['impressions']++;
$this->stats['revenue'] += $revenue;
$this->update_fill_rate();
}
// 记录广告点击
public function record_click($ad_id, $slot_id) {
global $wpdb;
$table_name = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_performance';
$wpdb->insert(
$table_name,
array(
'ad_id' => $ad_id,
'slot_id' => $slot_id,
'event_type' => 'click',
'timestamp' => current_time('mysql')
)
);
// 更新统计
$this->stats['clicks']++;
$this->update_ctr();
}
// 更新填充率
private function update_fill_rate() {
global $wpdb;
$requests_table = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_ad_requests';
$impressions_table = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_performance';
$total_requests = $wpdb->get_var(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM $requests_table WHERE DATE(timestamp) = CURDATE()"
);
$total_impressions = $wpdb->get_var(
"SELECT COUNT(*) FROM $impressions_table
WHERE event_type = 'impression' AND DATE(timestamp) = CURDATE()"
);
if ($total_requests > 0) {
$this->stats['fill_rate'] = ($total_impressions / $total_requests) * 100;
}
}
// 生成性能报告
public function generate_report($start_date, $end_date) {
global $wpdb;
$table_name = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_performance';
$report = $wpdb->get_results(
$wpdb->prepare(
"SELECT
ad_id,
slot_id,
COUNT(CASE WHEN event_type = 'impression' THEN 1 END) as impressions,
COUNT(CASE WHEN event_type = 'click' THEN 1 END) as clicks,
SUM(revenue) as revenue
FROM $table_name
WHERE timestamp BETWEEN %s AND %s
GROUP BY ad_id, slot_id
ORDER BY revenue DESC",
$start_date, $end_date
),
ARRAY_A
);
return $report;
}
}最佳实践与优化建议
1. A/B测试配置
为了优化广告分配效果，建议定期进行A/B测试：
// 示例：A/B测试框架
class ABTestManager {
private $tests;
public function __construct() {
$this->tests = array();
}
// 创建新的A/B测试
public function create_test($test_name, $variants, $traffic_percentage = 100) {
$test_id = sanitize_title($test_name);
$this->tests[$test_id] = array(
'name' => $test_name,
'variants' => $variants,
'traffic_percentage' => $traffic_percentage,
'start_date' => current_time('mysql'),
'results' => array()
);
// 分配初始权重
$variant_count = count($variants);
$weight = 100 / $variant_count;
foreach ($variants as $key => $variant) {
$this->tests[$test_id]['variants'][$key]['weight'] = $weight;
$this->tests[$test_id]['variants'][$key]['impressions'] = 0;
$this->tests[$test_id]['variants'][$key]['clicks'] = 0;
}
return $test_id;
}
// 获取测试变体
public function get_variant($test_id, $user_id = null) {
if (!isset($this->tests[$test_id])) {
return false;
}
$test = $this->tests[$test_id];
// 检查是否在测试流量中
if (rand(1, 100) > $test['traffic_percentage']) {
return $test['variants'][0]; // 返回控制组
}
// 基于权重随机选择变体
$random = rand(1, 100);
$current = 0;
foreach ($test['variants'] as $variant) {
$current += $variant['weight'];
if ($random <= $current) {
return $variant;
}
}
return $test['variants'][0];
}
}2. 缓存策略优化
// 示例：智能缓存系统
class AdCacheManager {
private $cache_group = 'faim_ads';
private $cache_expiration = 3600; // 1小时
// 获取缓存广告
public function get_cached_ad($slot_id, $user_segment) {
$cache_key = $this->generate_cache_key($slot_id, $user_segment);
$cached = wp_cache_get($cache_key, $this->cache_group);
if ($cached !== false) {
// 检查缓存是否过期
if (time() - $cached['timestamp'] < $this->cache_expiration) {
return $cached['ad_data'];
}
}
return false;
}
// 设置广告缓存
public function set_cached_ad($slot_id, $user_segment, $ad_data) {
$cache_key = $this->generate_cache_key($slot_id, $user_segment);
$cache_data = array(
'ad_data' => $ad_data,
'timestamp' => time()
);
wp_cache_set($cache_key, $cache_data, $this->cache_group, $this->cache_expiration);
}
// 生成缓存键
private function generate_cache_key($slot_id, $user_segment) {
return 'ad_' . $slot_id . '_' . md5(serialize($user_segment));
}
// 清除过期缓存
public function cleanup_expired_cache() {
// 这里可以实现定期清理过期缓存的逻辑
// 可以通过WordPress的定时任务来实现
}
}故障排除与常见问题
1. 插件冲突解决
如果遇到插件冲突问题，可以尝试以下解决方案：
- 在wp-config.php中添加
define('FAIM_DEBUG', true);开启调试模式 - 检查PHP错误日志
- 暂时停用其他插件进行排查
2. 性能优化建议
- 启用OPCache加速PHP执行
- 使用Redis或Memcached作为对象缓存
- 定期清理数据库中的旧数据
- 启用Gzip压缩减少传输数据量
3. 数据备份策略
// 示例：数据备份功能
add_action('faim_daily_maintenance', 'faim_backup_data');
function faim_backup_data() {
global $wpdb;
$backup_tables = array(
$wpdb->prefix . 'faim_inventory',
$wpdb->prefix . 'faim_performance',
$wpdb->prefix . 'faim_ad_requests'
);
$backup_data = array();
foreach ($backup_tables as $table) {
$backup_data[$table] = $wpdb->get_results("SELECT * FROM $table", ARRAY_A);
}
$backup_file = WP_CONTENT_DIR . '/uploads/faim_backup/' . date('Y-m-d') . '.json';
file_put_contents($backup_file, json_encode($backup_data));
}结语
通过本教程，您已经掌握了网络传媒柔性广告库存智能分配WordPress插件的核心应用方法。从基础安装配置到高级功能实现，这些工具和技术将帮助您优化广告库存管理，提高广告收益。
记住，成功的广告库存管理需要持续监控和优化。建议您：
- 定期分析性能报告，识别优化机会
- 进行A/B测试，不断改进分配策略
- 关注行业趋势，及时更新算法和策略
- 确保遵守数据隐私法规，保护用户隐私
随着技术的不断发展，柔性广告库存智能分配将继续演进，为网络传媒行业带来更多创新和价值。祝您在广告优化道路上取得成功！
网络传媒柔性广告库存智能分配WordPress插件应用教程（续）
动态定价策略与收益优化
1. 实时定价算法实现
// 示例：动态定价引擎
class DynamicPricingEngine {
private $base_price;
private $market_factors;
private $historical_data;
public function __construct($base_price = 1.0) {
$this->base_price = $base_price;
$this->market_factors = $this->load_market_factors();
$this->historical_data = $this->load_historical_data();
}
// 计算动态价格
public function calculate_price($ad_slot, $user_context, $time_of_day) {
$base_rate = $this->base_price;
// 1. 时段加成
$time_multiplier = $this->get_time_multiplier($time_of_day);
// 2. 用户价值评估
$user_value_score = $this->calculate_user_value($user_context);
// 3. 广告位价值评估
$slot_value = $this->evaluate_slot_value($ad_slot);
// 4. 市场竞争度调整
$competition_factor = $this->get_competition_factor($ad_slot);
// 5. 历史表现调整
$performance_factor = $this->get_performance_factor($ad_slot);
// 综合计算最终价格
$final_price = $base_rate
* $time_multiplier
* $user_value_score
* $slot_value
* $competition_factor
* $performance_factor;
// 价格边界控制
$final_price = $this->apply_price_bounds($final_price);
return round($final_price, 2);
}
// 获取时段加成系数
private function get_time_multiplier($time_of_day) {
$hour = (int)date('H', strtotime($time_of_day));
// 高峰时段定义
$peak_hours = [9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 20, 21];
$off_peak_hours = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5];
if (in_array($hour, $peak_hours)) {
return 1.5; // 高峰时段加价50%
} elseif (in_array($hour, $off_peak_hours)) {
return 0.7; // 低谷时段降价30%
} else {
return 1.0; // 正常时段
}
}
// 计算用户价值评分
private function calculate_user_value($user_context) {
$score = 1.0;
// 基于用户行为评分
if (isset($user_context['user_engagement'])) {
$engagement = $user_context['user_engagement'];
if ($engagement > 0.8) {
$score *= 1.3; // 高参与用户
} elseif ($engagement < 0.3) {
$score *= 0.8; // 低参与用户
}
}
// 基于地理位置评分
if (isset($user_context['location'])) {
$premium_locations = ['北京', '上海', '深圳', '广州'];
if (in_array($user_context['location'], $premium_locations)) {
$score *= 1.2;
}
}
return $score;
}
// 应用价格边界
private function apply_price_bounds($price) {
$min_price = 0.1;
$max_price = 10.0;
return max($min_price, min($max_price, $price));
}
}2. 价格预测模型
// 示例：机器学习价格预测
class PricePredictionModel {
private $model;
private $training_data;
public function __construct() {
$this->load_model();
}
// 预测未来价格趋势
public function predict_price_trend($ad_slot, $timeframe = '7d') {
$historical_prices = $this->get_historical_prices($ad_slot, $timeframe);
if (count($historical_prices) < 10) {
return $this->simple_average_prediction($historical_prices);
}
// 使用线性回归进行预测
return $this->linear_regression_prediction($historical_prices);
}
// 线性回归预测
private function linear_regression_prediction($data) {
$n = count($data);
$sum_x = 0;
$sum_y = 0;
$sum_xy = 0;
$sum_xx = 0;
foreach ($data as $index => $price) {
$x = $index;
$y = $price;
$sum_x += $x;
$sum_y += $y;
$sum_xy += $x * $y;
$sum_xx += $x * $x;
}
// 计算回归系数
$slope = ($n * $sum_xy - $sum_x * $sum_y) / ($n * $sum_xx - $sum_x * $sum_x);
$intercept = ($sum_y - $slope * $sum_x) / $n;
// 预测未来3个时间点的价格
$predictions = [];
for ($i = 1; $i <= 3; $i++) {
$predictions[] = $slope * ($n + $i) + $intercept;
}
return [
'current' => end($data),
'predictions' => $predictions,
'trend' => $slope > 0 ? 'up' : ($slope < 0 ? 'down' : 'stable'),
'confidence' => $this->calculate_confidence($data, $slope, $intercept)
];
}
// 计算预测置信度
private function calculate_confidence($data, $slope, $intercept) {
$sse = 0; // 误差平方和
$sst = 0; // 总平方和
$mean_y = array_sum($data) / count($data);
foreach ($data as $index => $price) {
$predicted = $slope * $index + $intercept;
$sse += pow($price - $predicted, 2);
$sst += pow($price - $mean_y, 2);
}
// 计算R²
$r_squared = 1 - ($sse / $sst);
return round($r_squared * 100, 2); // 转换为百分比
}
}用户行为分析与定向投放
1. 用户画像构建系统
// 示例：用户画像引擎
class UserProfileEngine {
private $user_data;
private $behavior_tracker;
public function __construct($user_id) {
$this->user_id = $user_id;
$this->user_data = $this->load_user_data();
$this->behavior_tracker = new UserBehaviorTracker($user_id);
}
// 构建完整用户画像
public function build_profile() {
$profile = [
'demographics' => $this->extract_demographics(),
'interests' => $this->extract_interests(),
'behavior_patterns' => $this->analyze_behavior_patterns(),
'purchase_intent' => $this->assess_purchase_intent(),
'engagement_level' => $this->calculate_engagement_level(),
'value_segment' => $this->determine_value_segment()
];
// 计算综合评分
$profile['overall_score'] = $this->calculate_overall_score($profile);
return $profile;
}
// 提取用户兴趣标签
private function extract_interests() {
global $wpdb;
$table_name = $wpdb->prefix . 'faim_user_behavior';
$interests = $wpdb->get_results(
$wpdb->prepare(
"SELECT category, COUNT(*) as frequency,
SUM(time_spent) as total_time
FROM $table_name
WHERE user_id = %d AND action = 'view'
GROUP BY category
ORDER BY frequency DESC
LIMIT 10",
$this->user_id
),
ARRAY_A
);
$interest_tags = [];
foreach ($interests as $interest) {
$score = $interest['frequency'] * 0.6 + $interest['total_time'] * 0.4;
$interest_tags[$interest['category']] = round($score, 2);
}
// 归一化处理
return $this->normalize_scores($interest_tags);
}
// 分析行为模式
private function analyze_behavior_patterns() {
$patterns = [
'browsing_times' => $this->analyze_browsing_times(),
'content_preferences' => $this->analyze_content_preferences(),
'device_usage' => $this->analyze_device_usage(),
'session_lengths' => $this->analyze_session_lengths(),
'click_behavior' => $this->analyze_click_behavior()
];
return $patterns;
}
// 评估购买意向
private function assess_purchase_intent() {
$intent_signals = [
'product_views' => $this->count_product_views(),
'cart_additions' => $this->count_cart_additions(),
'search_queries' => $this->analyze_search_queries(),
'price_comparisons' => $this->detect_price_comparisons(),
'review_reads' => $this->count_review_reads()
];
// 计算购买意向分数
$intent_score = (
$intent_signals['product_views'] * 0.3 +
$intent_signals['cart_additions'] * 0.4 +
$intent_signals['search_queries'] * 0.2 +
$intent_signals['review_reads'] * 0.1
);
return [
'score' => min(100, $intent_score * 10),
'signals' => $intent_signals,
'stage' => $this->determine_purchase_stage($intent_score)
];
}
// 确定购买阶段
private function determine_purchase_stage($intent_score) {
if ($intent_score > 7) return 'ready_to_buy';
if ($intent_score > 5) return 'consideration';
if ($intent_score > 3) return 'awareness';
return 'discovery';
}
}2. 智能定向投放系统
// 示例：智能定向引擎
class SmartTargetingEngine {
private $targeting_rules;
private $user_profiles;
public function __construct() {
$this->targeting_rules = $this->load_targeting_rules();
$this->user_profiles = [];
}
// 匹配最佳广告
public function match_ad_to_user($user_id, $available_ads) {
$user_profile = $this->get_user_profile($user_id);
$scored_ads = [];
foreach ($available_ads as $ad) {
$match_score = $this->calculate_match_score($ad, $user_profile);
if ($match_score > 0) {
$scored_ads[] = [
'ad' => $ad,
'match_score' => $match_score,
'relevance' => $this->calculate_relevance($ad, $user_profile),
'expected_ctr' => $this->predict_ctr($ad, $user_profile)
];
}
}
// 按综合得分排序
usort($scored_ads, function($a, $b) {
$score_a = $a['match_score'] * 0.4 + $a['expected_ctr'] * 0.6;
$score_b = $b['match_score'] * 0.4 + $b['expected_ctr'] * 0.6;
return $score_b <=> $score_a;
});
return $scored_ads;
}
// 计算匹配分数
private function calculate_match_score($ad, $user_profile) {
$score = 0;
// 1. 兴趣匹配
$interest_match = $this->match_interests($ad['targeting']['interests'],
$user_profile['interests']);
$score += $interest_match * 0.3;
// 2. 人口统计匹配
$demo_match = $this->match_demographics($ad['targeting']['demographics'],
$user_profile['demographics']);
$score += $demo_match * 0.25;
// 3. 行为匹配
$behavior_match = $this->match_behavior($ad['targeting']['behavior'],
$user_profile['behavior_patterns']);
$score += $behavior_match * 0.25;
// 4. 购买意向匹配
$intent_match = $this->match_purchase_intent($ad['targeting']['purchase_intent'],
$user_profile['purchase_intent']);
$score += $intent_match * 0.2;
return $score;
}
// 兴趣匹配算法
private function match_interests($ad_interests, $user_interests) {
if (empty($ad_interests)) return 0.5; // 无定向要求
$match_score = 0;
$total_weight = 0;
foreach ($ad_interests as $interest => $weight) {
if (isset($user_interests[$interest])) {
$match_score += $user_interests[$interest] * $weight;
}
$total_weight += $weight;
}
return $total_weight > 0 ? $match_score / $total_weight : 0;
}
// 预测点击率
private function predict_ctr($ad, $user_profile) {
$base_ctr = $ad['historical_ctr'] ?? 0.02;
// 基于用户参与度调整
$engagement_factor = $user_profile['engagement_level'] / 100;
// 基于广告相关性调整
$relevance_factor = $this->calculate_relevance($ad, $user_profile);
// 基于时段调整
$time_factor = $this->get_time_factor();
$predicted_ctr = $base_ctr
* (1 + $engagement_factor * 0.5)
* (1 + $relevance_factor * 0.3)
* $time_factor;
return min(0.5, max(0.001, $predicted_ctr));
}
}库存预测与需求规划
1. 时间序列预测模型
// 示例：库存预测系统
class InventoryForecastSystem {
private $seasonal_patterns;
private $trend_data;
private $external_factors;
public function __construct() {
$this->seasonal_patterns = $this->load_seasonal_patterns();
$this->trend_data = $this->load_trend_data();
$this->external_factors = $this->load_external_factors();
}
// 预测未来库存需求
public function forecast_demand($days_ahead = 30) {
$forecast = [];
for ($day = 1; $day <= $days_ahead; $day++) {
$date = date('Y-m-d', strtotime("+{$day} days"));
$daily_forecast = [
'date' => $date,
'base_demand' => $this->predict_base_demand($date),
'seasonal_adjustment' => $this->get_seasonal_adjustment($date),
'trend_component' => $this->get_trend_component($date),
'event_impact' => $this->assess_event_impact($date),
'external_factors' => $this->assess_external_factors($date)
];
// 计算总需求
$total_demand = $this->calculate_total_demand($daily_forecast);
$forecast[$date] = [
'components' => $daily_forecast,
'total_demand' => $total_demand,
'confidence_interval' => $this->calculate_confidence_interval($total_demand, $date)
];
}
return $forecast;
}
// 预测基础需求
private function predict_base_demand($date) {
// 使用历史数据计算
$historical_data = $this->get_historical_demand($date);
// 简单移动平均
$window_size = 7; // 7天移动平均
$recent_demand = array_slice($historical_data, -$window_size);
return array_sum($recent_demand) / count($recent_demand);
}
// 获取季节性调整因子
private function get_seasonal_adjustment($date) {
$month = date('n', strtotime($date));
$day_of_week = date('w', strtotime($date));
$week_of_year = date('W', strtotime($date));
$adjustment = 1.0;
// 月度季节性
if (isset($this->seasonal_patterns['monthly'][$month])) {
$adjustment *= $this->seasonal_patterns['monthly'][$month];
}
// 周内季节性
if (isset($this->seasonal_patterns['weekly'][$day_of_week])) {
$adjustment *= $this->seasonal_patterns['weekly'][$day_of_week];
}
// 特殊日期（节假日等）